Hikaru Nakamura Investment Mentions & Quotes

1. Volatility Bets — March 27, 2017, Twitter (now X)

Mentions: $VIX, $XIV, $VXX

• VIX context: In 2017, the VIX traded in a low range, hitting its all-time low for the year at ~8.56 on April 3 and lacking major spikes until year-end . Nakamura’s tweet one week before that low shows he anticipated a reversal from unusually calm markets.
• Interpretation: Through his mention of $VIX, $XIV, and $VXX, he flagged that the complacency in volatility had peaked, aligning with institutional signals that hedging demand would soon rise.
• Tactic: Selling short volatility ETFs like $XIV or buying $VXX/$VIX calls to profit from a volatility spike.
• Rationale: When the VIX was unusually low (~9–11), Nakamura leveraged mean-reversion, a common volatility strategy. Institutions long saw such low levels as unsustainable .
• Edge: Combining chess logic—anticipating mistakes under Trump policy uncertainty—with statistical understanding of volatility cycles.

Quote:

“We all knew low volatility couldn’t last forever under Trump. $VIX $XIV $VXX.”
He flagged a strategic bet on volatility instruments, forecasting a spike in VIX-linked ETFs.

2. Earnings-Driven Puts — March 30 2017, Twitter (now X)

Mention: $LULU (Lululemon)

• Stock move: Lululemon’s Q4 earnings report dropped on March 29, 2017. Despite slight revenue growth, weak guidance caused LULU stock to plunge ~20.5% in March .
• Trade insight: Nakamura’s deep-in-the-money put position would have captured that collapse, reflecting sharp event-driven positioning on clearly defined catalysts.
• Tactic: Purchasing deep in-the-money put options on Lululemon ahead of or immediately after earnings release.
• Rationale: With mixed guidance and sharp share drop (~20%), the trade profited greatly from downside pressure.
• Risk/Reward: Deep ITM puts have high deltas, reducing time decay sensitivity while capitalizing on sharp downside moves. Nakamura timed the trade around earnings—classic event-driven strategy.

Quote:

“$LULU with the big miss as my puts go deep into the money, and I won in the first round of the US Championship!”
Reflects a precise downside trade tied to an earnings miss, coinciding with his chess tournament success.

3. Reflections on Options — April 25, 2017 (Bloomberg interview)

Mentions: equities, options
Quotes:

• “I have been fascinated in general. In the last two years I have done more than equities. I look for patterns and strategies…”
• “In chess, if something goes wrong … you try to cut your loss … the same principle applies to trading as well.” bloomberg.com This Indicates his shift beyond equities into options markets, rooted in disciplined chess-like risk-taking.

4. Tech & Analytics in Markets — April 25, 2017 (Bloomberg appearance)

Draws parallels between chess engines and algorithmic markets; emphasizes post-trade analysis like chess game review. bloomberg.com

Focus: tech/computers in finance and chess
Summary quotes:

• Compares chess engines to market algorithms: both demand deeper strategic edge.
• Describes process: after a trade, he reviews decisions, similar to analyzing a chess game.bloomberg.com

5. Speculation Around GME — May 6, 2021 (YouTube clip)

Appeared in a video discussing GameStop (GME), suggesting commentary or predictive interest.

6. Bitcoin & Stocks Discussion — May 12, 2022 (Facebook video)

Spoke broadly about investing in Bitcoin and stock markets, indicating his active engagement beyond trading volatility and options. facebook.com

7. Public Perception and Speculation in 2017 to 2022

• Nakamura’s investment posts have attracted attention from both chess and financial communities. His 2017 volatility tweet led to speculation that he might be a major player in the options market, though there’s no evidence confirming he was the “50 cent” trader. This highlights his influence beyond chess, as his financial commentary is taken seriously by some in the investment world.
• A Reddit discussion from 2022 claimed Nakamura’s net worth was significantly higher than other top chess players, potentially due to his investments and streaming revenue. However, Nakamura disputed exaggerated figures, stating his net worth was under $5 million, suggesting that while he invests, the scale of his financial success in markets may be overstated by some sources.

8. Lex Friedman Interview

He also shared various thoughts during his interview with Lex Friedman. He did shorted Tesla via puts and put spread. He was also long into oil wrongly and decided to be more flexible moving forward.

In summary, Hikaru Nakamura publicly focused on various sectors and principles:

🔍 Why It Matters

• He doesn’t just follow trends—he anticipates macro moves (volatility under Trump) and earnings signals.
• His use of puts around earnings (like $LULU) shows tactical, event-driven risk-taking.
• He brings a unique blend of chess discipline, probabilistic thinking, and tech-enhanced analysis into trading.